Indices

IFX & Cost of Intelligence in detail

IFX answers “are list prices themselves falling?” with a conservative held-basket Laspeyres. CoI answers “is it getting cheaper to buy a given level of capability?” with a substitution measure. The two indices are complementary.

Index history

Base 100 on 2024-04-01 · reconstructed (dashed) + live (solid)

Reconstructed (monthly)Live (daily)

IFX · per-era waterfall

How the index got to 80.69 from 100

Five eras chained price-relative. Each row shows the era's start and end levels and the chained move.

EraWindowStartEndMove

A

Modern frontier

GPT-4 Turbo, Claude 3 family, Gemini 1.5; the first era where the modern frontier vs budget tier structure became legible.

2024-04-30

2024-09-30

100.0086.16-13.84%

B

Reasoning emerges

o1, Claude 3.5 Sonnet (new), DeepSeek V3 + R1 establish reasoning as a distinct price tier.

2024-10-31

2025-03-31

86.1686.160.00%

C1

GPT-5 era opening

Claude Opus 4 / Sonnet 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro / Flash, o3, GPT-4.1. The o3 list-price cut on Jun 10 2025 (−80%) is the single biggest sourced move in the reconstruction.

2025-04-30

2025-09-30

86.1680.69-6.35%

C2

GPT-5 era closing

GPT-5 family, Claude Opus 4.5 / Sonnet 4.5 / Haiku 4.5, Gemini 3 family, broad open-weight MoE generation. Matched-basket prices held flat.

2025-10-31

2026-03-31

80.6980.690.00%

D

Current

The live 29-model basket. Daily collection began 2026-06-18. Sub-indices for input-only and output-only token prices are live-only from this point forward.

2026-04-30

2026-06-21

80.6980.690.00%

Documented sourced events

Every chained move in IFX traces to one of these

Reconstruction is matched-sample — only documented price changes on held basket members move the level. List-price stickiness is what the index reveals.

  • 2024-08-13 Era A

    −13.84% on the chained index

    Google halves Gemini 1.5 Pro and Flash

    Gemini 1.5 Pro: $3.50/$10.50 → $1.25/$5.00 (blended −58%). Gemini 1.5 Flash: $0.35/$1.05 → $0.075/$0.30 (blended −79%). Combined with GPT-4o's Aug 6 cost-down (−42% blended), this was the largest IFX move of 2024.

  • 2025-06-10 Era C1

    −6.35% on the chained index

    OpenAI cuts o3 list price 80%

    o3 input $10 → $2, output $40 → $8 — an 80% list-price cut across the board. At 7% basket weight in C1's frontier tier, this single event drove the largest sourced chained-index move in the reconstruction.

Cost of Intelligence · bar detail

Champions at each capability gate

Each bar tracks the cheapest blended $/1M-token model whose canonical AA Intelligence Index score meets the gate. The cheaper the champion, the lower the bar's base-100 level.

Frontier · ≥ 50

≈ GPT-5.5 / Opus-class

100.00

Champion
Gemini-3.5 Flash
Blended
$3.3750/1M
Capability
50
Qualifiers
5

Capable · ≥ 40

≈ DeepSeek V4 Pro-class

100.00

Champion
GPT-5.4 Mini
Blended
$1.6875/1M
Capability
40
Qualifiers
10

Budget · ≥ 25

≈ GPT-4-class

100.00

Champion
GPT-5.4 Nano
Blended
$0.4625/1M
Capability
38
Qualifiers
20

Label is approximate reference class for public display; the gate is the numeric threshold. The CoI scale is pinned to AA Intelligence Index v4.1 — when AA bumps the scale, a chain-splice is recorded rather than the bar being silently moved.

IFX-Video · sibling index

Cost of generated video

USD per generated second at 720p/24fps — basket of 8 models. Base 100 on 2026-06-21.

as of 2026-06-21
100.00flat day

frontier · cap ≥ 80

Sora 2

OpenAI

$0.100/s

5 qualifiers

workhorse · cap ≥ 70

Hailuo 02

MiniMax

$0.045/s

10 qualifiers

budget · cap ≥ 50

LTX 2.3

Lightricks

$0.020/s

15 qualifiers

ModelProviderTierCapability$/secWeight
Veo 3.1 LiteGooglebudget60$0.030/s10.00%
Vidu Q2Shengshubudget54$0.037/s10.00%
Hailuo 02MiniMaxworkhorse74$0.045/s13.33%
Sora 2OpenAIfrontier84$0.100/s13.33%
Kling 3.0 TurboKuaishoufrontier86$0.120/s13.34%
Runway Gen-4Runwayworkhorse78$0.120/s13.33%
Luma Ray3.14Luma Labsworkhorse76$0.200/s13.34%
Veo 3.1Googlefrontier92$0.400/s13.33%
Universe (tracked, not in basket)
HunyuanVideo 1.5Tencentuniverse56$0/s (self-hosted)
LTX 2.3Lightricksuniverse60$0.020/s
Wan 2.5Alibabauniverse68$0.050/s
Pika 2.2Pika Labsuniverse60$0.080/s
Seedance 2.0ByteDanceuniverse75$0.124/s
Kling 2.6Kuaishouuniverse84$0.160/s
Moonvalley MareyMoonvalleyuniverse70$0.180/s
Sora 2 ProOpenAIuniverse88$0.500/s
methodology

IFX-Video tracks the cost of generated video, priced in USD per generated second at a 720p / 24fps reference. The basket weighting mirrors the LLM IFX (frontier 40% / workhorse 40% / budget 20%, equal within tiers). Where a provider sells credits, subscription seats, or per-clip charges (Runway, Kling, Pika, Luma), the listed $/sec is the blended effective rate at 720p on the cheapest seat that exposes the model. Per-bar champions are the cheapest models that clear an AA Video Arena capability gate (frontier ≥80, workhorse ≥70, budget ≥50). The index anchors at base 100 on the sibling inception date — the LLM IFX's 2024-04 inception does NOT apply because the underlying unit ($/sec) is incommensurable with $/1M tokens. Refresh cadence is weekly in v1 (video pricing moves slower than LLM pricing); the contract still publishes a daily entry.

IFX-Image · sibling index

Cost of generated images

USD per generated image at 1024×1024 standard — basket of 8 models. Base 100 on 2026-06-21.

as of 2026-06-21
100.00flat day

frontier · cap ≥ 80

HiDream-O1-Image (Dev)

HiDream AI

$0.030/img

5 qualifiers

workhorse · cap ≥ 70

Luma Photon 1

Luma Labs

$0.015/img

13 qualifiers

budget · cap ≥ 50

Luma Photon Flash

Luma Labs

$0.0020/img

19 qualifiers

ModelProviderTierCapability$/imgWeight
Luma Photon FlashLuma Labsbudget54$0.0020/img10.00%
Nano Banana (Gemini 2.5 Flash Image)Googlebudget68$0.039/img10.00%
GPT Image 2OpenAIfrontier86$0.040/img13.33%
FLUX.2 [pro]Black Forest Labsworkhorse78$0.040/img13.33%
Imagen 4Google DeepMindworkhorse76$0.040/img13.33%
Seedream 5.0ByteDancefrontier88$0.050/img13.34%
Ideogram 3.0Ideogramworkhorse72$0.060/img13.34%
Nano Banana Pro (Gemini 3 Pro Image)Googlefrontier92$0.130/img13.33%
Universe (tracked, not in basket)
Midjourney V8.1Midjourneyuniverse84$0/img (sub-only)
Qwen-Image 2.0Alibabauniverse58$0.0050/img
FLUX.2 [klein]Black Forest Labsuniverse60$0.010/img
GPT Image 1 MiniOpenAIuniverse54$0.011/img
Stable Diffusion 3.5 LargeStability AIuniverse52$0.012/img
Luma Photon 1Luma Labsuniverse70$0.015/img
FLUX.2 [flex]Black Forest Labsuniverse74$0.020/img
Reve 2.0Reve AIuniverse71$0.020/img
HiDream-O1-Image (Dev)HiDream AIuniverse82$0.030/img
Recraft V4Recraftuniverse72$0.040/img
Adobe Firefly Image Model 4Adobeuniverse70$0.060/img
Imagen 4 UltraGoogle DeepMinduniverse84$0.080/img
methodology

IFX-Image tracks the cost of image generation, priced in USD per generated 1024×1024 image at standard quality. Basket weighting mirrors IFX-Video (frontier 40% / workhorse 40% / budget 20%, equal within tiers). For models with multiple quality tiers (GPT Image 2 spans $0.005–$0.211 etc.), the listed $/image is the mid/standard tier; the range is documented in each basket entry's note. Subscription-only services (Midjourney) are deliberately excluded from the basket because effective $/image depends entirely on usage volume — they're kept in the universe for editorial reference. Per-bar champions are the cheapest models that clear an AA Image Arena capability gate (frontier ≥80, workhorse ≥70, budget ≥50). The index anchors at base 100 on the sibling inception date.